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FFC / BIPE VIsion'AIR report

In a fast-changing transport sector, what is the outlook for the energy mix for heavy commercial vehicles between now and 2040 in Europe? The VIsion’AIR survey conducted by FFC in association with the consultants BIPE (member of BDO), aims to analyse, year by year, changes for each vehicle type, use case and powertrain. The main findings will be revealed at a plenary talk on 16 November at 2.30 pm at the tradeshow SOLUTRANS (Eurexpo Lyon, from 16 to 20 November 2021).

A robust and proven methodology : 

To anticipate the long-term powertrain mix of heavy commercial vehicles, BIPE developed a mathematical modelling-focussed approach based on using the TCO (Total Cost of Ownership) of future powertrains. The principles of this approach are proven and acknowledged, and similar to those used in the annual work carried out for the automotive sector (the WAPO model). The TCO variables used in the model were constructed with the aid of a consortium of participants from the upstream (manufacturers, equipment suppliers) and downstream (commercial vehicle purchasers, energy suppliers) sectors. The cost assumptions communicated to BIPE by each participant were subject to strict confidentiality: only the aggregated and averaged assumptions were share.

Segmentations considered : 

• The VIsion'Air model is built for an aggregated geographical perimeter corresponding to Europe. As such, the segmentation chosen is that defined by Europe in its VECTO tool, measuring heavy goods vehicle emissions, making it possible to calculate the trend in CO2 emissions in compliance with the European standard.

Discover the press release